A probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of life-inhabiting worlds currrently in the Milky Way galaxy
Are We Alone?
The Pfeifer Equation is inspired by the Drake Equation, which was created by Frank Drake in 1961. The Drake Equation consists of seven factors, which when multiplied together provide an estimate for the number of extraterrestrial civilizations that could communicate with us. Since its creation, many people have wondered and formed judgments about the existence and prevalence of extraterrestrial life. Some believe that it is only a matter of time until we find other life, while others argue that there is a strong chance that we are alone.
Throughout its history, the Drake Equation has come under scrutiny for the selection of some factors and the exclusion of others. Additionally, some if not all factors have uncertainties and are very difficult to estimate, resulting in a broad range of results making it difficult to draw conclusions. Newer modifications and versions such as the Rare Earth Hypothesis have proposed different ideas and opposed certain aspects of the Drake Equation. The Pfeifer Equation aims to challenge which factors are important and which are not, as well as their estimates.
In 1961, Drake originally estimated that stars which had planets would have 1 to 5 habitable planets and 100% of those would develop life. These estimates are where the Pfeifer Equation deviates greatly, providing an alternative perspective on the likelihood and prevalence of extraterrestrial life.
Since Drake's time, we have learned a lot about where we stand in the universe. With that being said, we still lack sufficient data to make accurate estimates. We know of more than 5600 exoplanets, but still no signs of life. Whether Drake was correct in his selection of factors and estimates or not, at the very least his equation motivated others to search into the sky and come up with their own thoughts on the matter.
Made by Nicholas Pfeifer